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Abstract Climate change is responsible for increased frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events, such as marine heatwaves (MHWs). Within eastern boundary current systems, MHWs have profound impacts on temperature-nutrient dynamics that drive primary productivity. Bull kelp ( Nereocystis luetkeana ) forests, a vital nearshore habitat, experienced unprecedented losses along 350 km of coastline in northern California beginning in 2014 and continuing through 2019. These losses have had devastating consequences to northern California communities, economies, and fisheries. Using a suite of in situ and satellite-derived data, we demonstrate that the abrupt ecosystem shift initiated by a multi-year MHW was preceded by declines in keystone predator population densities. We show strong evidence that northern California kelp forests, while temporally dynamic, were historically resilient to fluctuating environmental conditions, even in the absence of key top predators, but that a series of coupled environmental and biological shifts between 2014 and 2016 resulted in the formation of a persistent, altered ecosystem state with low primary productivity. Based on our findings, we recommend the implementation of ecosystem-based and adaptive management strategies, such as (1) monitoring the status of key ecosystem attributes: kelp distribution and abundance, and densities of sea urchins and their predators, (2) developing management responses to threshold levels of these attributes, and (3) creating quantitative restoration suitability indices for informing kelp restoration efforts. 

In the last decade, the known biogeography of nitrogen fixation in the ocean has been expanded to colder and nitrogen‐rich coastal environments. The symbiotic nitrogen‐fixing cyanobacteria group A (UCYN‐A) has been revealed as one of the most abundant and widespread nitrogen‐fixers, and includes several sublineages that live associated with genetically distinct but closely related prymnesiophyte hosts. The UCYN‐A1 sublineage is associated with an open ocean picoplanktonic prymnesiophyte, whereas UCYN‐A2 is associated with the coastal nanoplanktonic coccolithophoreBraarudosphaera bigelowii, suggesting that different sublineages may be adapted to different environments. Here, we study the diversity ofnifHgenes present at the Santa Cruz Municipal Wharf in the Monterey Bay (MB), California, and report for the first time the presence of multiple UCYN‐A sublineages, unexpectedly dominated by the UCYN‐A2 sublineage. Sequence and quantitative PCR data over an 8‐year time‐series (2011–2018) showed a shift toward increasing UCYN‐A2 abundances after 2013, and a marked seasonality for this sublineage which was present during summer‐fall months, coinciding with the upwelling‐relaxation period in the MB. Increased abundances corresponded to positive temperature anomalies in MB, and we discuss the possibility of a benthic life stage of the associated coccolithophore host to explain the seasonal pattern. The dominance of UCYN‐A2 in coastal waters of the MB underscores the need to further explore the habitat preference of the different sublineages in order to provide additional support for the hypothesis that UCYN‐A1 and UCYN‐A2 sublineages are different ecotypes.